The low price of crude oil has been preserved and is expected to continue to rise.
Hello~ best wishes for healthy trading. This is Tirano.
Bitcoin had an early morning spike, but we don’t think it’s significant, so we’ll wait for the end of the week without any further corrections.
As for the Nasdaq, it’s well on its way down after the briefing, so we’ll wait to harvest.
Gold is in the same boat as the Nasdaq.
Today, we’ll focus on Crude Oil, and I’ll go over the key monitoring points.
Let’s get the important facts out of the way first.
On April 12, 2023, Crude Oil was a high of 83.49.
On May 4, 2023, Crude Oil has a low of 63.64.
The next lowest price found was 67.10 on June 28.
The next low was found on August 10 at 84.85.
The current price is at 87.30 and is above 84.85.
Actually, the second low for Crude Oil was 66.85 on June 12, but since it doesn’t change the analysis, we’re using 67.10 as the low from which the rally started for convenience.
Now we can weave these facts together to derive some additional facts.
1. Since May 2023, the price of Crude Oil has not been lower.
2. In August 2023, Crude Oil made a new high.
3. Since then, there has been some retracement, but the price is currently rising above the old high.
No one can argue with the first five facts and the next three.
There is a bullish AB=CD pattern (see the blue triangle in the chart).
A bounce from the 0.382 retracement level of the uptrend has taken place and made a new high, in which case we can expect a move up to 2.618. The price in this range is 95.8.
Since the retracement has already occurred, we are assuming that the price will continue to move higher without a correction, and if it does, it will likely find support at the existing high of the 84.85-83.5 range.
We can also note that this is also where the existing selling range is located, as well as the 20-period moving average of the daily chart.
Based on these facts, we have been aggressively long Crude Oil since Monday of this week and have already taken quite a bit of profit.
We are looking forward to taking a decent profit on the remaining volume as well.
For the Nasdaq, we’ll keep it simple and only look at monitoring points.
We only need to look at the daily chart from yesterday. The high is at 15376 points and the low is at 15139 points.
Coincidentally, we have the 5 and 10 SMAs above and the 20 SMA below.
I expected the price to break the 20-period moving average at once and go down, but there was a weak bounce.
Depending on whether it breaks above or below today, we can plan our positions for next week by looking at the closing price. We are not planning any additional positions at the moment and will proceed to hold our existing positions.